EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast — Released August 11, 2026
- Source
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- Source link
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf#f0a23b766d84-crude_oil_production_forecast-v2
- Published
- 2026-08-11 00:00:00
- Discovered by ProcIntel
- 2026-08-12 22:55:51
- Category
- Commodities & Raw Materials
- Geography
- United States
- Organisations
- —
- Review status
- Pending
- Record type
- REAL
Summary
FORECAST (not settled fact): EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, 14.2 million barrels per day in 2027.
Procurement Relevance Gate
PASS
— score 22.8/100 — evaluated 2026-08-12 22:55:51
Passed on: commodity_or_input_impact, geographic_exposure (score 22.8/100, threshold 20.0).
- commodity_or_input_impact (weight 12) — matched on "oil"
- geographic_exposure (weight 8) — matched on "1 linked geography"
Initial Signal Assessment ProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.
A provisional, automatically-computed reading of this individual Signal, before Event extraction or human review. Not a final rating.
- Initial Significance
- 2 · Moderate (20.0/100)
- Initial Confidence
- 3 · Moderate (57.5/100)
- Data sufficiency Whether enough structured evidence exists to trust this Signal's Initial Confidence reading. 'Sufficient' has no cap; 'Partial' and 'Insufficient' cap Confidence until more evidence is available; 'Not Assessed' means the Signal did not pass the Relevance Gate.
- Partial
- Strongest contributor
- Impact-Scale Specificity
- Limiting factor
- Geographic Breadth
Initial Significance Moderate (20.0/100). Strongest contributor: Impact-Scale Specificity (7.0/10 points). Limiting factor: Geographic Breadth (0.0/10 points). Initial Confidence Moderate (57.5/100, data sufficiency: Partial). Strongest contributor: Source Authority (40.0/40 points). Limiting factor: Corroboration (2.5/25 points).
- No likely Event type matched; a low contextual baseline was applied.
- Entity Criticality data quality warning: all_linked_entities_data_insufficient.
- no matched Event type
- no actor entities (only attribution/metadata, if any)
- no actor content-derived geography
- single source only
- Entities were mentioned as context or document attribution rather than as actors in the reported development, so they did not increase Initial Confidence.
Methodology signal_scoring_v1 — calculated 2026-08-12 22:55:51.