‎IMF ups UAE's GDP growth forecast to 7.7% in 2027

‎<p><span ><span class="ckeCaption" ><img src="https://argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com/a210be9c-478d-4749-bb21-23bd7d81b7d1.jpg" >UAE flag</span></span></p> <hr> <p dir="ltr" ><span ><span >The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its estimates for the UAE's GDP growth to 7.7% in 2027, compared to its previous April forecast of 5.3<span dir="LTR">%</span>.</span></span><br> <br> <span >In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also revised the UAE’s 2026 GDP growth to 3.9% from a previous forecast of 3.1</span><span dir="LTR" >%</span><span >.</span><br> <br> <span >The IMF noted that these forecasts come amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, which are impacting economic activity, supply chains, and trade.</span></p> <p dir="ltr" ></p> <table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr > <td colspan="4" > <p dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong>IMF forecasts for UAE gross domestic product (GDP) growth (%)</strong></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr > <td > <p dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong><span >Period</span></strong></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong><span >Previous forecasts</span></strong></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong><span >Current forecasts</span></strong></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong><span >Change</span></strong></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr > <td > <p dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong><span >2026</span></strong></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><span >3.1</span><span dir="LTR"><span >%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><span >(3.9</span><span dir="LTR"><span >%</span></span><span >)</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><span >(0.8 </span><span dir="LTR"><span >%</span></span><span >)</span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr > <td > <p dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><strong><span >2027</span></strong></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><span >5.3</span><span dir="LTR"><span >%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><span >7.7</span><span dir="LTR"><span >%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p align="center" dir="ltr" ><span ><span ><span >+2.4</span><span dir="LTR"><span >%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div ></div> <div ><span >On inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that inflation in the UAE will rise to 4.5% in 2026, compared to 1.3% in 2025, before falling to 2.5% in 2027.</span><br> <br> <span >The IMF also forecasts the UAE’s current account surplus will drop to 4.8% of GDP this year, compared to 13.3% in 2025, before climbing to 7.8% in 2027.</span><br> <br> <span >Regionally, the IMF expects the Middle East and North Africa GDP to contract by </span><span dir="LTR" >2 </span><span >% in </span><span dir="LTR" >2026</span><span >, after growing by </span><span dir="LTR" >3.3 </span><span >% in </span><span dir="LTR" >2025</span><span >, with growth rebounding to </span><span dir="LTR" >7 </span><span >% in </span><span dir="LTR" >2027</span><span >.</span><br> <br> <span >The report said these forecasts assume the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2027 and a general return to pre-war conditions by October of the same year, including the gradual resumption of production, shipments, insurance, and payment arrangements.</span><br> <br> <span >The IMF expects global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026, from 3.5% in 2025, before accelerating to 3.4% in 2027, factoring in continued disruptions in energy markets.</span><br> <br> <span >According to available Argaam data, the Cabinet approved the general federal budget for 2027–2029, with total expenditures of AED 292.5 billion—an increase of 28.3% versus the previous three years—including estimated expenditures of AED 90.1 billion for </span><span dir="LTR" >2027</span><span >.</span></div>

Publication

Argaam - UAE News · Trade Publication

Published

13th October 2026

Original report

argaam.com

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