Signal · Geopolitical Risk
Brent could hit $200 without East-West pipeline
What the source reported
Source-reported<p><img src="https://argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com/95682bfd-1149-4714-8422-1956cb6b06aa.png"></p> <p><span class="ckeCaption" >Amin Nasser, President and CEO of Saudi Aramco</span></p> <hr> <div data-olk-copy-source="MessageBody" >Brent crude prices could have reached $200 per barrel without <a href="https://www.argaam.com/en/tadawul/tasi/saudi-aramco" target="_blank">Saudi Aramco</a>’s East-West Pipeline, CEO <a href="https://www.argaam.com/en/tadawul/tasi/saudi-aramco/organizationemployhistory/amin-h-nasser/2825" target="_blank">Amin Nasser</a> stated.</div> <div data-olk-copy-source="MessageBody" ></div> <div> <p >Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser noted that physical crude prices sometimes trade $20-$50 per barrel above the Brent benchmark.</p> <p ></p> <p >Chinese demand for liquids used in the chemicals industry will support oil demand growth and offset any decline stemming from the shift toward electrification, Nasser said.</p> <p ></p> <p >Nasser said there was huge demand to build additional inventories around the world.</p> <p ></p> <p >Oil demand is expected to remain stable over the next two years if conditions return to normal now, he added.</p> <p ></p> <p >The Strait of Hormuz crisis has severely disrupted maritime shipping, placing significant pressure on global supply chains.</p> <p ></p> <p >Aramco is exploring additional routes for crude exports and expanding overseas storage capacity to help mitigate short-term disruptions.</p> <p ></p> <p >Nasser revealed that around three billion barrels had been lost from global oil supplies, equivalent to nearly half the crude and petroleum products that would normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.</p> <p ></p> <p >Rebuilding inventories while continuing to meet demand could take up to two years, he cautioned.</p> <p ></p> <p >The world entered the crisis with roughly 10 billion barrels in oil inventories, Nasser pointed out. More than one billion barrels have since been drawn down to ease supply shortages, with most of the drawdown coming from onshore commercial stocks.</p> <p ></p> <p >Less than six billion barrels of commercial inventories now remain, although most of that volume is not readily available, according to Nasser.</p> <p ></p> <p >Onshore commercial stocks therefore represent the last major buffer available to offset supply shortfalls.</p> <p ></p> <p >Emergency reserves may be sufficient to meet demand through the winter, but they would not resolve the longer-term supply challenge. Pressure on crude and refined products is likely to intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and confidence returns to the market, Nasser warned.</p> <p ></p> <p >Saudi Aramco is currently meeting all customer requirements and could ramp up supplies to 12 million barrels per day within days if requested, Nasser confirmed.</p> <p ></p> <p >The company has not needed to draw on its strategic product reserves despite pressure on energy markets and supply chains. Aramco has also begun repairing damaged assets even while some sites remain on fire, as part of efforts to maintain operational and supply continuity.</p> <p ></p> <p >Open-source data, including satellite imagery and shipping records, is increasingly being used to target infrastructure and tankers, Nasser noted, creating new challenges for global energy security and supply chains.</p> </div>
- Publication
- Argaam - Main News · Trade Publication
- Published
- 5th October 2026
- Original report
- argaam.com
ProcIntel stores what the source published in its feed — a headline, a summary and a link. It does not store or reproduce the full article.
What ProcIntel recorded
ProcIntel-derived- Category
- Geopolitical Risk
- Geography
- Saudi Arabia
- Organisations
- None identified
- Collected
- 5th October 2026 · 16:01
Initial assessment ProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.
A provisional, automatically computed reading of this individual Signal, before Event extraction or human review. Not a final rating.
Initial Significance Material (45.0/100). Strongest contributor: Procurement Impact (27.0/30 points). Limiting factor: Likely Event Severity (3.0/30 points). Initial Confidence Very Low (16.5/100, data sufficiency: Partial). Strongest contributor: Source Authority (20.0/40 points). Limiting factor: Corroboration (2.5/25 points).
- Strongest contributor
- Procurement Impact
- Limiting factor
- Likely Event Severity