Signal · Geopolitical Risk
ADNOC Distribution Q2 2026 earnings forecast
What the source reported
Source-reported<p ><span ><span class="ckeCaption" ><img src="https://argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com/1d37440f-3bec-4e93-a468-8294de17ca4b.png" ><br> One of ADNOC Distribution's stations</span></span></p> <p> </p><hr><p></p> <p><span ><span >Argaam,</span></span><span >in this report, provides a look at the earnings forecasts for<a href="https://www.argaam.com/ae-ar/companies/adx/abu-dhabi-national-oil-company/overview" target="_blank">ADNOC Distribution</a>, which operates in the marketing of petroleum products, natural gas, and their derivatives in the UAE duringQ22026. The report also covers the trend in quarterly profit, key performance indicators, and profitability metrics.</span></p> <p ></p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr > <td colspan="6" > <p ><strong><span ><span >Quarterly revenue– AED mln</span></span></strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr > <td > <p ><span ><span >Item</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >Q2</span></span></p> <p ><span dir="RTL"><span ><span >2025</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >Q3 2025</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >Q4 2025</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >Q1</span></span><br> <span dir="RTL"><span ><span >2026</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >Q2 2026</span></span><br> <span ><span >(consensus</span></span><span ><span >)</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr > <td > <p ><span ><span >Revenue</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span dir="RTL"><span ><span >8,638.5</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span dir="RTL"><span ><span >9,325.5</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span dir="RTL"><span ><span >9,459.5</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span dir="RTL"><span ><span >8,833.6</span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span dir="RTL"><span ><span >9,632.7</span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr > <td > <p ><span ><span >Change</span></span><span dir="RTL"><span ><span ><em>(%)</em></span></span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >(1.7%)</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >+2.7%</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >+7.1%</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >+4.3%</span></span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span ><span >+11.5%</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p ></p> <p ></p> <p ></p> <p ><strong><span >Quarterly Earnings– AED mln</span></strong></p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <th > <p ><span >Item</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Q2 2025</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Q3 2025</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Q4 2025</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Q1 2026</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Q2 2026 (Consensus)</span></p> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Net income</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >676.7</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >810.9</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >667.8</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >770.7</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >1,007.6</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Exceptional items</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >0.0</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >0.0</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >0.0</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >0.0</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >0.0</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Net income before exceptional and non-recurring items</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >676.7</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >810.9</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >667.8</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >770.7</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >1,007.6</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Recurring EPS (fils/share)</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >5.41</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >6.49</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >5.34</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >6.17</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >8.06</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p ></p> <p ></p> <p ></p> <p ><strong><span ><span >Key events duringQ22026:</span></span></strong></p> <p ><br> <span ><span >- The board of directors approved an interim cash dividend of 5.1425 fils per share for Q1 2026.</span></span></p> <p ><span ><span >- The company announced strategic partnerships with Emirates Global Aluminium valued at over AED 60 million. The partnerships aim to enhance industrial performance and support local manufacturing by providing high-performance, locally manufactured grease solutions as part of a portfolio of 520 products that address the needs of partners and clients in the automotive, industrial, and specialty products sectors.</span></span></p> <p ><span ><span >- Americana Restaurants announced a strategic partnership with ADNOC Distribution to open up to 200 quick service restaurants across 12 brands at ADNOC stations in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.</span></span></p> <p ><span ><span >- The company’s shareholders approved an interim cash dividend of 10.285 fils per share for H2 2025.<br> <br> <strong>Average forecasts for Q2 2026</strong></span></span></p> <p ><span ><span >On average, analysts forecast net profit of AED 1,007.6 million, based on coverage by five research houses. This estimate is around 49% higher than the profit reported in Q2 2025.</span></span></p> <p ></p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <th > <p ><span >Research Firm</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Estimate (AED mln)</span></p> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Morgan Stanley</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >1,250.0</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Barclays</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >1,184.0</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Goldman Sachs</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >1,000.0</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >First Abu Dhabi Securities</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >842.0</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >United Securities</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >762.0</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Consensus Estimate</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >1,007.6</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Net profit before exceptional and non-recurring items (Q2 2025)</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >676.7</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Difference (%)</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >+49%</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p ></p> <p ><strong><span >Share Performance</span></strong></p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <thead> <tr> <th > <p ><span >Metric</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Company</span></p> </th> <th > <p align="center" ><span >Market</span></p> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Change YTD</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >+3.33%</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >(0.52%)</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Change (last 12 months)</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >+8.33%</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >(3.64%)</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Previous close</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >4.03</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >9,940.83</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Recurring P/E</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >17.22x</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >22.33x</span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td > <p ><span >Recurring EPS (last 12 months) (fils/share)</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >23.41</span></p> </td> <td > <p ><span >—</span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p ></p>
- Publication
- Argaam - UAE News · Trade Publication
- Published
- 4th August 2026
- Original report
- argaam.com
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What ProcIntel recorded
ProcIntel-derived- Category
- Geopolitical Risk
- Geography
- UAE
- Organisations
- None identified
- Collected
- 4th August 2026 · 15:20
Initial assessment ProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.
A provisional, automatically computed reading of this individual Signal, before Event extraction or human review. Not a final rating.
Initial Significance Moderate (28.0/100). Strongest contributor: Geographic Breadth (10.0/10 points). Limiting factor: Likely Event Severity (3.0/30 points). Initial Confidence Low (31.5/100, data sufficiency: Partial). Strongest contributor: Source Authority (20.0/40 points). Limiting factor: Corroboration (2.5/25 points).
- Strongest contributor
- Geographic Breadth
- Limiting factor
- Likely Event Severity