Signal · Geopolitical Risk

‎Saudi GDP falls 4.7% in Q2 2026

Argaam - Main News Trade press Published 8th September 2026 Saudi Arabia

What the source reported

Source-reported

‎<img src="https://argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com/aace44ba-25ae-489d-a14a-288d10d0366e.png"> The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's flag <hr>  Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 4.7% year-on-year (YoY) in the second quarter of 2026, according to flash estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). GASTAT said it adopted the chain-linking methodology in national accounts to calculate real GDP. It issued the Q4 2023 and 2023 annual bulletins based on the new methodology, replacing the previous approach, which used a fixed base year. The chain-linking methodology is a dynamic approach used to measure economic growth, particularly real growth in national accounts. It uses the previous year’s weights and prices for the year being measured, providing a more accurate measure across consecutive periods and better reflecting current economic conditions. According to the results, oil activities declined 24.8% YoY, while non-oil activities and government activities each grew 0.9%. <table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr > <td colspan="4" > GDP by Economic Activity (Chain-linking methodology - SAR bIn) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Activity </td> <td > Q2 2025 </td> <td > Q2 2026 </td> <td > Change </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Oil </td> <td > 317.44 </td> <td > 238.75 </td> <td > (24.8%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Non-oil </td> <td > 671.35 </td> <td > 677.03 </td> <td > 0.9% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Government </td> <td > 145.87 </td> <td > 147.16 </td> <td > 0.9% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Gross value added </td> <td > 1134.35 </td> <td > 1076.88 </td> <td > (5.1%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Net taxes on products </td> <td > 63.62 </td> <td > 64.42 </td> <td > 1.3% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > GDP </td> <td > 1197.99 </td> <td > 1141.54 </td> <td > (4.7%) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *Chain-linking methodology is non-additive, component values may not sum to the corresponding totals. Saudi GDP at current prices grew by 7.5% YoY in Q2 2026 to SAR 1.26 trillion. The non-oil sector grew by 3.0%, while the private sector expanded by 3.1%. Meanwhile, the oil sector grew by 25.0%. <table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr > <td colspan="4" > GDP by Institutional Sector at Current Prices (SAR bIn)* </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Activity </td> <td > Q2 2025 </td> <td > Q2 2026 </td> <td > Change </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Oil </td> <td > 248.08 </td> <td > 310.09 </td> <td > 25.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Non-oil </td> <td > 858.85 </td> <td > 884.93 </td> <td > 3.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Government </td> <td > 216.19 </td> <td > 222.67 </td> <td > 3.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Private </td> <td > 642.66 </td> <td > 662.26 </td> <td > 3.1% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Gross value added </td> <td > 1106.93 </td> <td > 1195.02 </td> <td > 8.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Net taxes on products </td> <td > 69.01 </td> <td > 68.81 </td> <td > (0.3%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > GDP </td> <td > 1175.94 </td> <td > 1263.83 </td> <td > 7.5% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div > <div >*Preliminary data.</div> <div></div> <div></div> <div></div> <div></div> </div> <div ></div> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr > <td colspan="3" > Real GDP Growth Rates (Chain-linking methodology) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Period </td> <td > QoQ seasonally adjusted </td> <td > YoY </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2018 </td> <td > +0.2% </td> <td > +2.7% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > +1.3% </td> <td > +3.9% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > +0.4% </td> <td > +3.1% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +1.4% </td> <td > +3.2% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2019 </td> <td > +0.2% </td> <td > +2.8% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > (0.1%) </td> <td > +1.7% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > (0.6%) </td> <td > +1.4% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +1.1% </td> <td > +0.7% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2020 </td> <td > (2.2%) </td> <td > (1.3%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > (5.1%) </td> <td > (7.3%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > +2.5% </td> <td > (3.7%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +1.9% </td> <td > (2.9%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2021 </td> <td > +1.6% </td> <td > +1.7% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > +1.0% </td> <td > +6.9% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > +4.1% </td> <td > +8.5% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +2.5% </td> <td > +9.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2022 </td> <td > +4.2% </td> <td > +11.2% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > +2.6% </td> <td > +14.5% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > +2.3% </td> <td > +13.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +0.3% </td> <td > +9.6% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2023 </td> <td > +0.04% </td> <td > +5.5% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > (0.4%) </td> <td > +2.7% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > (2.6%) </td> <td > (2.6%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +0.3% </td> <td > (3.0%) </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2024 </td> <td > +2.6% </td> <td > +0.4% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > +1.1% </td> <td > +1.2% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > +0.4% </td> <td > +3.9% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +1.0% </td> <td > +5.2% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2025 </td> <td > +0.8% </td> <td > +3.6% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > +2.4% </td> <td > +4.3% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q3 </td> <td > +1.0% </td> <td > +5.2% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q4 </td> <td > +0.9% </td> <td > +5.2% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q1 2026 </td> <td > (1.4%) </td> <td > +3.0% </td> </tr> <tr > <td > Q2 </td> <td > (4.8%) </td> <td > (4.7%) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *Data are updated in line with publications issued by GASTAT.

Publication: Argaam - Main News · Trade Publication
Published: 8th September 2026
Original report: argaam.com

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What ProcIntel recorded

ProcIntel-derived

Category: Geopolitical Risk
Geography: Saudi Arabia
Organisations: None identified
Collected: 8th September 2026 · 18:58

Initial assessment ProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.

A provisional, automatically computed reading of this individual Signal, before Event extraction or human review. Not a final rating.

Significance 1 · Low

Confidence 2 · Low

Initial Significance Low (14.0/100). Strongest contributor: Procurement Impact (6.0/30 points). Limiting factor: Geographic Breadth (0.0/10 points). Initial Confidence Low (26.5/100, data sufficiency: Partial). Strongest contributor: Source Authority (20.0/40 points). Limiting factor: Corroboration (2.5/25 points).

Strongest contributor: Procurement Impact
Limiting factor: Geographic Breadth

What the source reported

What ProcIntel recorded

Initial assessment ⓘMore about Initial Signal AssessmentProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.

Initial assessment ProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.