Aviation fuel prices continue to surge over Mideast tensions
ProcIntel Risk Index (PRI) PRI indicates how much procurement risk attention a canonical event warrants, based on its potential impact, corroboration, linked-entity criticality, geographic or regulatory exposure, and confidence in the available evidence.
—
19 · Minimal
Freshness: Ageing Shows how recently the evidence supporting the event was updated. Freshness is displayed separately and does not automatically reduce PRI.
Shows whether all structured inputs needed for the PRI are sufficiently assessed. Incomplete Entity Criticality data is disclosed rather than silently treated as low risk. DATA QUALITY WARNING
PRI: 19 — MINIMAL Base risk 43/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 56/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+23 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (29 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient.
Confidence multiplier Confidence limits the final PRI when evidence is uncertain. A severe but weakly supported claim cannot reach the highest PRI bands.: 0.45 (Low) · Calculated 2026-08-04 06:18:01 (vv1).
Full contribution breakdown
- Procurement Impact: 23 / 40 — Significance 56/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap
- Corroboration: 15 / 15 — 3 corroborating event(s) in this event's cluster
- Entity Criticality: 1 / 30 — Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient
- Geographic Regulatory: 4 / 15 — 1 distinct content-linked geography/geographies
- Event type
- Commodity price movement
- UUID
- 2f848166-acfc-4636-b48b-0163c45f443f
- Editorial review status
- Pending (ProcIntel's own review of this record)
- Event lifecycle
- Breaking (the real-world state of the situation — a separate concept from review status above)
- Significance
-
3 · Material
- This type of disruption typically has a moderate procurement impact.
- A single geography identified so far.
- Wide breadth — linked to 4 tracked entities/organisations.
- Assessed time horizon: Short-term.
- Confidence
-
2 · Low
(distinct from each article link's own extraction confidence below)
- Reported only by secondary sources so far — no primary/official confirmation yet.
- Reported by a single source so far — not yet independently corroborated.
- Some key facts (e.g. exact date) are still missing or unconfirmed.
- Evidence was last updated within the last month.
- Impact direction
- Neutral or Mixed (provisional default — not yet reviewed)
- Occurred at
- Not yet established (no explicit date was tightly bound to the matched event text)
- Record type
- REAL
Source Facts
Aviation fuel prices surged last week as the shipping blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continued.According to the Jet Fuel Price Monitor, the global average jet fuel price rose 7.1...
Linked Signals
| Published | Headline | Source | Matched text | Extraction confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 02:57:16 | Aviation fuel prices continue to surge over Mideast tensions | Oman Observer - Business | prices surged | 95.0 | high precision phrase |
Linked Entities
| Entity | Type | Link method | Confidence | Source article |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Fuel | Commodity | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Oman | Country | reused entity extraction | 95.0 | article |
| Global | Region | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Strait of Hormuz | Shipping Route | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
Spend Categories
No spend categories linked yet
Spend categories are linked by a reviewer, not assigned automatically.
Review History
| Date | Action | Previous | New | Reviewer | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Created | — | Commodity price movement: 'Aviation fuel prices continue to surge over Mideast tensions' (lifecycle=Breaking) | Deterministic v1 extractor | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Pri Recalculated | score=None, band=None | score=1, band='Minimal' | Deterministic v1 extractor | PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 5/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities. |
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Pri Recalculated | score=1.0, band='Minimal' | score=1, band='Minimal' | — | PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 6/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient. |
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Article Linked | — | source_item #2655 | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Significance Changed | None | 3 | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Confidence Changed | None | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:18:01 | Pri Recalculated | score=1.0, band='Minimal' | score=15, band='Minimal' | — | PRI: 15 — MINIMAL Base risk 33/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 56/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+23 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (29 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient. |