Houthis Claim Third Attack on Saudi Aramco Refinery in Two Weeks
PRI: 17 — MINIMAL Base risk 38/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 63/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+25 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (29 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient.
Confidence multiplier Confidence limits the final PRI when evidence is uncertain. A severe but weakly supported claim cannot reach the highest PRI bands.: 0.45 (Low) · Calculated 2026-08-18 11:11:07 (vv1).
Full contribution breakdown
- Procurement Impact: 25 / 40 — Significance 63/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap
- Corroboration: 5 / 15 — A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty)
- Entity Criticality: 1 / 30 — Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient
- Geographic Regulatory: 7 / 15 — 2 distinct content-linked geography/geographies
- Event type
- Production disruption
- UUID
- 8183097d-e73c-438b-87df-2fa66c25b153
- Editorial review status
- Pending (ProcIntel's own review of this record)
- Event lifecycle
- Breaking (the real-world state of the situation — a separate concept from review status above)
- Significance
-
3 · Material
- This type of disruption typically has a moderate procurement impact.
- Multiple geographies identified (2).
- Wide breadth — linked to 5 tracked entities/organisations.
- Assessed time horizon: Short-term.
- Confidence
-
2 · Low
(distinct from each article link's own extraction confidence below)
- Reported only by secondary sources so far — no primary/official confirmation yet.
- Reported by a single source so far — not yet independently corroborated.
- Some key facts (e.g. exact date) are still missing or unconfirmed.
- Evidence is current — updated within the last week.
- Impact direction
- Negative (provisional default — not yet reviewed)
- Occurred at
- Not yet established (no explicit date was tightly bound to the matched event text)
- Record type
- REAL
Source Facts
The Iran-aligned Houthi group on Tuesday claimed it had targeted Saudi Aramco’s Jazan oil refinery on Red Sea coast in southwest Saudi Arabia, in what was the third Houthi attack at the facility in the past two weeks, amid escalating hostilities in the region and a deadlock in the U.S.-Iran talks. The armed forces of the Yemen-based Houthi group targeted the Jazan refinery with “a number of drones,” a military source at the Houthi forces told the Houthi-controlled Yemeni News Agency Saba. The strike at the refinery was precise,…
Linked Signals
| Published | Headline | Source | Matched text | Extraction confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 10:30:00 | Houthis Claim Third Attack on Saudi Aramco Refinery in Two Weeks | Oilprice.com | strike at the refinery | 95.0 | high precision phrase |
Linked Entities
| Entity | Type | Link method | Confidence | Source article |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company | Company | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Iran | Country | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Saudi Arabia | Country | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Global | Region | reused entity extraction | 95.0 | article |
| Red Sea | Shipping Route | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
Spend Categories
No spend categories linked yet
Spend categories are linked by a reviewer, not assigned automatically.
Review History
| Date | Action | Previous | New | Reviewer | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Created | — | Production disruption: 'Houthis Claim Third Attack on Saudi Aramco Refinery in Two Weeks' (lifecycle=Breaking) | Deterministic v1 extractor | — |
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Pri Recalculated | score=None, band=None | score=1, band='Minimal' | Deterministic v1 extractor | PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 5/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities. |
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Pri Recalculated | score=1.0, band='Minimal' | score=1, band='Minimal' | — | PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 6/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient. |
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Article Linked | — | source_item #9723 | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Significance Changed | None | 3 | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Confidence Changed | None | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 11:11:07 | Pri Recalculated | score=1.0, band='Minimal' | score=17, band='Minimal' | — | PRI: 17 — MINIMAL Base risk 38/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 63/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+25 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (29 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient. |