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Refinery Attacks Deepen Global Diesel Supply Crunch

ProcIntel Risk Index (PRI) PRI indicates how much procurement risk attention a canonical event warrants, based on its potential impact, corroboration, linked-entity criticality, geographic or regulatory exposure, and confidence in the available evidence. — 10 · Minimal Freshness: Ageing Shows how recently the evidence supporting the event was updated. Freshness is displayed separately and does not automatically reduce PRI. Shows whether all structured inputs needed for the PRI are sufficiently assessed. Incomplete Entity Criticality data is disclosed rather than silently treated as low risk. DATA QUALITY WARNING

PRI: 10 — MINIMAL Base risk 23/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 46/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+18 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 0/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (30 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient.

Confidence multiplier Confidence limits the final PRI when evidence is uncertain. A severe but weakly supported claim cannot reach the highest PRI bands.: 0.45 (Low) · Calculated 2026-08-12 23:57:56 (vv1).

Full contribution breakdown
  • Procurement Impact: 18 / 40 — Significance 46/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap
  • Corroboration: 5 / 15 — A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty)
  • Entity Criticality: 0 / 30 — Linked-entity criticality 0/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient
  • Geographic Regulatory: 0 / 15 — 0 distinct content-linked geography/geographies
Event type
Commodity price movement
UUID
24e5e6f8-ce07-4158-ab30-172bab0458a6
Editorial review status
Pending (ProcIntel's own review of this record)
Event lifecycle
Breaking (the real-world state of the situation — a separate concept from review status above)
Significance
3 · Material
  • This type of disruption typically has a moderate procurement impact.
  • No specific geography identified yet.
  • Linked to 2 tracked entities.
  • Assessed time horizon: Short-term.
Confidence
2 · Low (distinct from each article link's own extraction confidence below)
  • Reported only by secondary sources so far — no primary/official confirmation yet.
  • Reported by a single source so far — not yet independently corroborated.
  • Some key facts (e.g. exact date) are still missing or unconfirmed.
  • Evidence was last updated within the last month.
Impact direction
Neutral or Mixed (provisional default — not yet reviewed)
Occurred at
Not yet established (no explicit date was tightly bound to the matched event text)
Record type
REAL

Source Facts

Diesel prices surged earlier this week on news about yet another Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery and a Houthi attack on a Saudi refining facility. Global fuel supply is already out of balance, and the continued refinery disruption will only aggravate the situation, right before peak demand season. Reuters reported Monday that refining margins in Europe had surged by 10%, and that surge was from an already elevated starting point as refiners around the world see their margins rise to all-time highs on the supply tightening caused by the war…

Linked Signals

PublishedHeadlineSourceMatched textExtraction confidenceMethod
2026-08-12 20:00:00 Refinery Attacks Deepen Global Diesel Supply Crunch Oilprice.com prices surged 95.0 high precision phrase

Linked Entities

EntityTypeLink methodConfidenceSource article
Diesel Commodity reused entity extraction 75.0 article
Global Region reused entity extraction 95.0 article

Spend Categories

No spend categories linked yet

Spend categories are linked by a reviewer, not assigned automatically.

Review History

DateActionPreviousNewReviewerNote
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Created — Commodity price movement: 'Refinery Attacks Deepen Global Diesel Supply Crunch' (lifecycle=Breaking) Deterministic v1 extractor —
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Pri Recalculated score=None, band=None score=1, band='Minimal' Deterministic v1 extractor PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 5/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities.
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Pri Recalculated score=1.0, band='Minimal' score=1, band='Minimal' — PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 5/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient.
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Article Linked — source_item #7393 — —
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Significance Changed None 3 — —
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Confidence Changed None 2 — —
2026-08-12 23:57:56 Pri Recalculated score=1.0, band='Minimal' score=10, band='Minimal' — PRI: 10 — MINIMAL Base risk 23/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 46/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+18 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 0/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (30 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient.