US national debt exceeds $40 trillion for the first time

Source

Gulf Today - Business

Source link

https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2026/08/20/us-national-debt-exceeds-40-trillion-for-the-first-time-724875

Published

2026-08-20 15:25:00

Discovered by ProcIntel

2026-08-20 16:10:40

Category

GCC Spotlight

Geography

UAE

Organisations

—

Review status

Pending

Record type

REAL

Summary

The US gross national debt has surged past $40 trillion for the first time, government data showed on Wednesday, outstripping earlier forecasts at a pace fuelled in part by President Donald Trump’s invalidated tariffs. The uptick in borrowing is a blow to Trump, who promised to cut public spending during his 2024 presidential campaign, and sparked a backlash from US representatives across the political field. The new record comes as longer-term US obligations linked to social security and health care have been growing, while interest payments have climbed as well. Total public debt outstanding stood at $40.05 trillion at the close of business on Tuesday, according to data released on Wednesday by the Treasury Department. That surpasses an earlier forecast by the Congressional Budget Office that overall borrowing would hit $39.4 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2026. Rising US debt comes as concerns over inflation and government spending have been driving investor worries, and the cost of borrowing has grown. The war in the Middle East has also piled pressure on Trump, costing the lives of 18 American service members and $37.5 billion in military spending as the nearly six-month-old conflict grinds on with little sign of resolution. Defence spending shows no sign of slowing, with the US House of Representatives narrowly passing an annual defence policy bill in July that would authorise a record $1.15 trillion in funding for the Pentagon. Savings from Trump’s commission to slash the US federal workforce and agencies have also been hard to quantify, with independent observers insisting figures claimed by the US government – the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) website currently posts cuts of $215 billion – fall short of actual savings. Trump’s mega-wealthy ally Elon Musk, who led the cost-cutting drive, said in 2025 he believed his stint was “a little bit successful”.Republican Senator Rick Scott joined a wave of lawmakers in condemning the debt surge, urging Congress to “get spending under control and BALANCE THE BUDGET”.Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, a retired US Navy combat pilot, accused Trump of enriching himself while running up the national debt.“The President said he’d pay off the debt in his first term. Well we all knew that was a lie,” he posted.“Instead he ran it up to $40 trillion while he and his family made billions.”Democratic Congressman Ted Lieu accused Trump of having “ushered in the Golden Age of Debt.”Yields on long-term Treasury bonds rose on Tuesday to the highest level since 2007, reflecting growing price pressures due to war on Iran and anxiety over US deficit spending. The increase forces the US government to refinance debt at the highest rates since before the 2008 global financial crisis. But the US Treasury Department moved to steady the long-term bond market early Wednesday, sending yields lower. The federal government operates at a deficit and borrows money to help cover its obligations, including its war spending and tax cuts.“It’s been well-known for a while that the United States government was on a pretty unsustainable path with deficits,” said Jessica Riedl, a budget and tax fellow at the Brookings Institution.“Over the last few years, the United States has moved into roughly $2 trillion deficits, even during peace and prosperity,” she added. While deficits of three to four per cent of GDP used to worry financial markets, she noted that levels are closer to six to seven per cent of GDP now. “That has made markets more nervous,” she said. As inflation pushed interest rates higher, interest costs on the debt have risen as well, and costs linked to an ageing population are pushing up deficits. Analysts note that there is no debt-to-GDP level that automatically triggers a crisis. Although the gross debt marks a symbolic threshold, many economists consider debt held by the public to be the most economically meaningful measure.“But psychologically, these are the landmarks that warn financial markets that they need to take another look at rising debt,” Riedl said. Federal borrowing surged during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and increased following the government’s response to the downturn triggered by Covid-19, said Caleb Quakenbush, director of fiscal policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Agence France-Presse

Procurement Relevance Gate

Initial Signal Assessment ⓘMore about Initial Signal AssessmentProcIntel's automatic, provisional read of this individual Signal -- Initial Significance and Initial Confidence, computed deterministically before any Event extraction or human review.

A provisional, automatically-computed reading of this individual Signal, before Event extraction or human review. Not a final rating.

Initial Significance

2 · Moderate (39.0/100)

Initial Confidence

2 · Low (31.0/100)

Data sufficiency ⓘMore about Data sufficiencyWhether enough structured evidence exists to trust this Signal's Initial Confidence reading. 'Sufficient' has no cap; 'Partial' and 'Insufficient' cap Confidence until more evidence is available; 'Not Assessed' means the Signal did not pass the Relevance Gate.

Partial

Strongest contributor

Procurement Impact

Limiting factor

Likely Event Severity

Initial Significance Moderate (39.0/100). Strongest contributor: Procurement Impact (21.0/30 points). Limiting factor: Likely Event Severity (3.0/30 points). Initial Confidence Low (31.0/100, data sufficiency: Partial). Strongest contributor: Source Authority (12.0/40 points). Limiting factor: Extraction Quality (3.0/15 points).

• No likely Event type matched; a low contextual baseline was applied.
• No eligible (non-geographic, non-fictional) entities were linked to this Signal.
• no matched Event type
• no actor entities (only attribution/metadata, if any)
• no actor content-derived geography
• Entities were mentioned as context or document attribution rather than as actors in the reported development, so they did not increase Initial Confidence.
• Geographies were mentioned only in diplomatic reaction, commentary or background context rather than as the actor, event location or affected party in the reported development, so they did not increase Initial Confidence.
• Only source-level geography metadata was available.
• Source metadata did not contribute to Initial Confidence.

Methodology signal_scoring_v1 — calculated 2026-08-20 16:10:40.