Record U.S. Refinery Runs Fail to Ease Global Fuel Crunch
PRI: 13 — MINIMAL Base risk 28/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 41/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+16 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 0/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities (30 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities.
Confidence multiplier Confidence limits the final PRI when evidence is uncertain. A severe but weakly supported claim cannot reach the highest PRI bands.: 0.45 (Low) · Calculated just now (vv1).
Full contribution breakdown
- Procurement Impact: 16 / 40 — Significance 41/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap
- Corroboration: 5 / 15 — A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty)
- Entity Criticality: 0 / 30 — Linked-entity criticality 0/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities
- Geographic Regulatory: 7 / 15 — 2 distinct content-linked geography/geographies
- Event type
- Supply shortage
- UUID
- 585cf7eb-1a18-470f-9c26-ab7c2df216ec
- Editorial review status
- Rejected (ProcIntel's own review of this record)
- Event lifecycle
- Breaking (the real-world state of the situation — a separate concept from review status above)
- Significance
-
3 · Material
- This type of disruption typically has a moderate procurement impact.
- Multiple geographies identified (2).
- Linked to 1 tracked entity.
- Assessed time horizon: Short-term.
- Confidence
-
2 · Low
(distinct from each article link's own extraction confidence below)
- Reported only by secondary sources so far — no primary/official confirmation yet.
- Reported by a single source so far — not yet independently corroborated.
- Some key facts (e.g. exact date) are still missing or unconfirmed.
- Evidence was last updated within the last month.
- Impact direction
- Negative (provisional default — not yet reviewed)
- Occurred at
- Not yet established (no explicit date was tightly bound to the matched event text)
- Record type
- REAL
Source Facts
U.S. refineries are producing the most gasoline and diesel since before the pandemic lockdowns, refining margins are running at record highs, but the world is still short on fuels. And it would take a while—and maybe a peace deal in the Middle East—before the situation changes. Fuel shortages are the more important oil crisis because it is fuels that the world consumes, not unrefined crude oil. Yet ever since the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran at the end of February, it is crude oil prices that have been hogging…
Linked Signals
| Published | Headline | Source | Matched text | Extraction confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 17:00:00 | Record U.S. Refinery Runs Fail to Ease Global Fuel Crunch | Oilprice.com | fuel shortages | 95.0 | high precision phrase |
Linked Entities
Spend Categories
No spend categories linked yet
Spend categories are linked by a reviewer, not assigned automatically.
Review History
| Date | Action | Previous | New | Reviewer | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 08:58:50 | Created | — | Supply shortage: 'Record U.S. Refinery Runs Fail to Ease Global Fuel Crunch' (lifecycle=Breaking) | Deterministic v1 extractor | — |
| 2026-07-31 08:58:50 | Article Linked | — | source_item #471 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 08:58:50 | Significance Changed | None | 3 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 08:58:50 | Confidence Changed | None | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 09:02:27 | Review Status Changed | pending | rejected | Stage 6.6 cleanup | Stale: matched only via the broad "\w+ shortages?" pattern tried during Stage 6.6, which was reverted after finding false positives. Does not match under the current, narrower phrase list. |