Oil Prices Rise for Fourth Day as Hormuz Traffic Slows
PRI: 17 — MINIMAL Base risk 37/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 61/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+24 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (29 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient.
Confidence multiplier Confidence limits the final PRI when evidence is uncertain. A severe but weakly supported claim cannot reach the highest PRI bands.: 0.45 (Low) · Calculated 2026-08-19 07:47:33 (vv1).
Full contribution breakdown
- Procurement Impact: 24 / 40 — Significance 61/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap
- Corroboration: 5 / 15 — A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty)
- Entity Criticality: 1 / 30 — Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient
- Geographic Regulatory: 7 / 15 — 2 distinct content-linked geography/geographies
- Event type
- Commodity price movement
- UUID
- 7c4185fd-c148-4d75-be1e-426790ff15ac
- Editorial review status
- Pending (ProcIntel's own review of this record)
- Event lifecycle
- Breaking (the real-world state of the situation — a separate concept from review status above)
- Significance
-
3 · Material
- This type of disruption typically has a moderate procurement impact.
- Multiple geographies identified (2).
- Wide breadth — linked to 6 tracked entities/organisations.
- Assessed time horizon: Short-term.
- Confidence
-
2 · Low
(distinct from each article link's own extraction confidence below)
- Reported only by secondary sources so far — no primary/official confirmation yet.
- Reported by a single source so far — not yet independently corroborated.
- Some key facts (e.g. exact date) are still missing or unconfirmed.
- Evidence is current — updated within the last week.
- Impact direction
- Neutral or Mixed (provisional default — not yet reviewed)
- Occurred at
- Not yet established (no explicit date was tightly bound to the matched event text)
- Record type
- REAL
Source Facts
Crude oil prices extended their gains for the fourth day today as fresh tanker-tracking data suggests traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has slowed further amid harder rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, with both sides demonstrating an unwillingness to return to the negotiating table. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $91.53 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $85.47 per barrel, two days after the expiration of the June ceasefire deal the U.S. and Iran had agreed, which broke down in early July.…
Linked Signals
| Published | Headline | Source | Matched text | Extraction confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 05:40:00 | Oil Prices Rise for Fourth Day as Hormuz Traffic Slows | Oilprice.com | prices rise | 95.0 | high precision phrase |
Linked Entities
| Entity | Type | Link method | Confidence | Source article |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | Commodity | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Crude Oil | Commodity | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Iran | Country | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| United States | Country | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
| Global | Region | reused entity extraction | 95.0 | article |
| Strait of Hormuz | Shipping Route | reused entity extraction | 75.0 | article |
Spend Categories
No spend categories linked yet
Spend categories are linked by a reviewer, not assigned automatically.
Review History
| Date | Action | Previous | New | Reviewer | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Created | — | Commodity price movement: 'Oil Prices Rise for Fourth Day as Hormuz Traffic Slows' (lifecycle=Breaking) | Deterministic v1 extractor | — |
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Pri Recalculated | score=None, band=None | score=1, band='Minimal' | Deterministic v1 extractor | PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 5/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: no eligible entities. |
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Pri Recalculated | score=1.0, band='Minimal' | score=1, band='Minimal' | — | PRI: 1 — MINIMAL Base risk 6/100 × Very Low confidence multiplier (0.15). Highest contributor: A single event -- not yet corroborated by a separate clustered event (neutral baseline, not a penalty) (+5 of 15). Limiting factor: No Significance score yet (event has no linked articles) (40 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient. |
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Article Linked | — | source_item #10195 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Significance Changed | None | 3 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Confidence Changed | None | 2 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 07:47:33 | Pri Recalculated | score=1.0, band='Minimal' | score=17, band='Minimal' | — | PRI: 17 — MINIMAL Base risk 37/100 × Low confidence multiplier (0.45). Highest contributor: Significance 61/100, normalised to this factor's 40-point cap (+24 of 40). Limiting factor: Linked-entity criticality 4/100, normalised to this factor's 30-point cap -- DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient (29 points below its maximum). DATA QUALITY WARNING: all linked entities data insufficient. |